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Technical Analysis

Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: EURUSD cracks 1.1900 but backs off


The Richmond Fed's Bullard said that the Fed should not do anything (non voting dove).

The Cleveland Fed's Meister (non-voting member) thinks the Fed should hike three times per year.  This calendar year the Fed has hiked twice.  If you count calendar years, the Fed hiked in December 2016.  So that is three times. She did not make any commitments to another hike this calendar year nor balance sheet action.  
 
SF Fed's William's wants to see the balance sheet reduction to start in the "fall", but expects inflation to rise in the "next year or two"  He too is a non- voting member.
 
In other news in the NY session, the July ADP employment data showed job gains of 178K vs 190K estimate. The US Non Farm payroll will be released on Friday with the expectations for 180K increase (vs 222K the prior month).  The dollar fell on the news with the EURUSD moving initially up about 20-25 pips (1.1830 to 1.1856). 
 
The rally in that pair did continue up toward the 1.1876 level (high reached 1.1871).  The 1.1876 was the swing low from June 2010. In 2015, the level was broken to the downside, never to be traded since that time (at least not until today).  After a consolidation/modest correction, the pair triggered stops and raced to a high of 1.1910.  The gains could not be sustained and the price is closing back below that key 1.1876 level at 1.1854.  In the new day the 1.1876 will once again be key.

The USDJPY also saw the dollar lose ground in trading today before recovering over the last few hours. For it, the price fell below a support area  (100 hour MA and swing low from July 24) at 110.61-65 area. The fall took the price to a low of 110.277 before a rally began after a second run to the low, failed to take out the day lows. The price rebounded to above the 100 hour MA at 110.61 and that level will be eyed in the new trading day as a barometer for bullish and bearish.

The GBPUSD chopped around for most of the day but with more of a bullish bias. This was despite weaker construction data today (51.9 vs 54.3).  Technically, the pair held support against a trend broken trend line (comes in at 1.3214 currently) and moved up to form a triple top at the 1.3245 area. After a move above the triple top failed (at 1.3250), the price rotated lower into the NY close (at 1.3223). The BOE has an interest rate decision tomorrow. They are expected to keep rates unchanged.
 
Below are the % changes of the major currencies vs each other. The EURCHF was the biggest mover of the day, continuing its run to the upside.  Last week the EURCHF traded above its 200 week MA at 1.1233. That break was the 1st time the pair has traded above the MA since September 2008. The high today reached 1.1523 (nearly 300 pips above the MA level).   It continues to whittle away at the distance to the 1.2000 level.
 

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